Every forecast we publish is archived, then compared against what the weather stations actually recorded. This page is the scoreboard - including the days we get it wrong. No other weather service shows you this.
2 m temperature against hourly station reports · lower is better · window 2026-08-12T21:00 → 2026-08-13T16:00 UTC
icon_seamless - the further ahead a forecast reaches, the more it drifts. This curve is the honest shape of forecasting.
Same scoring, per station - accuracy is not uniform across the planet.
| STATION | BEST MODEL | MAE | BIAS | PAIRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIRK | ecmwf_aifs025_single | 0.28°C | +0.09°C | 33 |
| NZAA | best_match | 0.61°C | -0.22°C | 36 |
| KORD | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.7°C | +0.05°C | 29 |
| YSSY | best_match | 0.74°C | -0.58°C | 36 |
| PHNL | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.77°C | -0.58°C | 32 |
| FAOR | ecmwf_aifs025_single | 0.82°C | +0.62°C | 36 |
| LFPG | ncep_aigfs025 | 0.84°C | +0.04°C | 36 |
| SBGR | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.88°C | +0.61°C | 36 |
| CYYZ | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.93°C | -0.22°C | 36 |
| RJTT | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.96°C | -0.51°C | 36 |
| KSFO | ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.98°C | -0.7°C | 31 |
| SCEL | ecmwf_aifs025_single | 1°C | +0.3°C | 36 |
| ZBAA | ncep_aigfs025 | 1°C | +0.15°C | 36 |
| EGLL | ncep_aigfs025 | 1.02°C | -0.82°C | 36 |
| EDDF | ecmwf_ifs025 | 1.06°C | -1.02°C | 36 |
| ENGM | ncep_aigfs025 | 1.06°C | -0.99°C | 36 |
| LEMD | ecmwf_ifs025 | 1.06°C | +0.17°C | 36 |
| EHAM | ncep_aigfs025 | 1.09°C | +0.86°C | 36 |
| KDEN | ecmwf_ifs025 | 1.22°C | +0.41°C | 33 |
| KMIA | ncep_aigfs025 | 1.48°C | -0.76°C | 34 |
| KJFK | best_match | 1.54°C | -1.47°C | 34 |
| LIRF | ecmwf_ifs025 | 1.84°C | -0.22°C | 36 |
| VIDP | ecmwf_ifs025 | 2.04°C | +0.16°C | 36 |
| OMDB | ecmwf_aifs025_single | 3.12°C | -3.12°C | 36 |
Mean absolute error in °C against hourly station observations. Models with fewer than 5 matched pairs are listed but not ranked. A short archive is a weak verdict - these numbers sharpen as it grows. Truth data: METAR station observations (NOAA Aviation Weather Center). Scored 25 minutes ago.
GET /v2/skill returns the same scores, filterable by model or station.